The triple lock is a rule that guarantees the UK state pension rises each year by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%, and it is currently confirmed to continue at least through April 2026. Beyond that, many experts question whether it is affordable long term, but there is no firm decision yet to scrap it.
What the triple lock actually is
The triple lock was introduced in 2010 to stop the state pension shrinking in real terms over time. Each April, the state pension is increased by whichever is highest out of:
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CPI inflation in the previous September
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Average UK wage growth (usually May–July or May–June)
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A minimum of 2.5%
This mechanism has sometimes produced very large rises, for example 8.5% in April 2024 when earnings growth was unusually strong. It applies to the basic state pension and the new state pension, though some related extras are only uprated with inflation.
How it affects your state pension
Because it uses the best of three measures, the triple lock has made the state pension grow faster than both inflation and wages at times, gradually raising its value relative to average earnings. For 2026–27, it is set to deliver a 4.8% rise, taking the full new state pension to just over £240 a week (around £12,500 a year).
That is good news for current pensioners, but it also pushes more of them over the frozen income tax personal allowance of £12,570, meaning increasing numbers will pay tax on part of their state pension. Critics say this creates a “fiscal drag” effect where gains from the triple lock are partly clawed back via income tax.
Why some people want it scrapped or changed
The triple lock is expensive because it ratchets the state pension up faster in volatile years, and no one can predict its cost decades ahead. The Institute for Fiscal Studies and other analysts estimate that in some economic scenarios it could add well over 1% of national income to annual spending by mid‑century compared with a simpler earnings link.
Commentators who argue for scrapping or softening it say:
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It gives today’s pensioners a growing share of national income, putting extra pressure on working‑age taxpayers.
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The 2.5% floor is arbitrary and can be generous when wages and inflation are low.
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A “single lock” (earnings only) or “double lock” (higher of earnings or inflation) could be more sustainable.
Think‑tanks such as the OECD have suggested alternatives like linking increases to an average of inflation and earnings, combined with targeted means‑tested support for the poorest pensioners.
Why others say it must stay
Supporters argue the triple lock is crucial to preventing pensioner poverty, especially for people who have little or no private pension. Research for consultancy LCP suggests scrapping it outright could leave millions more facing inadequate retirement incomes compared with their working‑life earnings.
They also point out that the UK state pension, while improving, is still modest compared with many European systems when measured as a share of average pay. For this group, the main priority is to keep the triple lock in place at least until the state pension reaches what they see as a “reasonable” proportion of earnings, after which some favour moving to a less generous formula.
Could the triple lock actually be scrapped?
Politically, the triple lock is very sensitive because around 12–13 million people receive the state pension and many vote. The current government has explicitly promised to honour the triple lock for this Parliament, with the 4.8% 2026 rise already baked into Budget plans.
Most analysts therefore think any big reform is more likely after the next general election, for example from 2029 onwards. Options often discussed include shifting to a double lock, earnings‑only uprating, or keeping the triple lock but changing tax and benefit rules around it; however, there is no agreed roadmap yet.
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What this means for you
If you are already getting the state pension, the triple lock currently offers strong protection against inflation and should deliver at least another above‑inflation increase in April 2026. If you are years away from pension age, it is safer to plan on more modest, earnings‑linked rises in the long run, as few experts expect the current version of the triple lock to survive unchanged for decades.
